India-Pakistan Water Treaty Clash: Legal Hurdles for Pakistan

The relationship between India and Pakistan, already fraught with tension due to historical conflicts and ongoing disputes, reached new heights of strain following the tragic Pahalgam attack in 2024. This attack, which claimed the lives of 26 people in Pahalgam’s Baisaran meadow, prompted India to take decisive action against Pakistan’s continued support of cross-border terrorism. Among the series of punitive measures taken by New Delhi, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a vital agreement that governs the usage of shared river resources between the two nations — has drawn sharp reactions from Islamabad. Pakistan, now facing significant water security challenges, has vowed to challenge India’s suspension on the international stage. But how likely is it that Pakistan’s plan will succeed? In this article, we explore the background of the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan’s legal options for challenging the suspension, and the likely outcomes of these efforts.

The Indus Waters Treaty and Its Significance

Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty is one of the most important agreements between India and Pakistan, specifically concerning water-sharing between the two countries. The treaty was brokered by the World Bank after a long period of negotiations, and it established clear guidelines for how the waters of the Indus river system should be divided between the two nations. Under the treaty, India has control over the waters of three eastern rivers – the Ravi, the Sutlej, and the Beas – while Pakistan has control over the waters of the western rivers – the Indus, the Chenab, and the Jhelum.

The treaty has survived through three major wars between India and Pakistan — in 1965, 1971, and 1999 — and has been hailed as a remarkable achievement in water diplomacy. It has ensured that both countries have access to essential water resources despite political and military tensions. However, India’s recent decision to suspend the treaty in the wake of the Pahalgam attack has reignited a long-standing concern for Pakistan. With agriculture forming the backbone of its economy and a large percentage of its population reliant on the waters of the Indus River system, Pakistan is left with an urgent need to find a way to challenge India’s move.

India’s Reasons for Suspending the Treaty

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty was a direct response to the Pahalgam attack, which New Delhi attributed to Pakistan-based terrorist groups. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government made it clear that India’s decision was a measure aimed at holding Pakistan accountable for its support of cross-border terrorism. In a statement, the Indian government said that the treaty would remain in abeyance until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”

For India, the suspension was framed as a strategic move to pressure Pakistan into abandoning its alleged support for militant groups operating from its soil. The suspension has significant implications for Pakistan, which relies heavily on the water resources of the Indus River system for its agricultural sector, one of the largest in the world. With around 24% of Pakistan’s GDP coming from agriculture and the sector providing employment to over 37% of the population, any disruption in water supply could have far-reaching consequences for its economy and food security.

Pakistan’s Options for Challenging India’s Suspension

In response to India’s suspension, Pakistan has vowed to take legal action to challenge the decision. Pakistan’s Minister of State for Law and Justice, Aqeel Malik, stated that Islamabad is preparing to explore several options to seek justice for the suspension of the treaty. These options include raising the issue through the World Bank — the body that facilitated the creation of the Indus Waters Treaty — as well as pursuing legal recourse at international forums such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA).

The main argument put forward by Pakistan is that India’s suspension of the treaty is illegal, as there is no provision in the treaty that allows for unilateral suspension. Pakistan claims that such an action violates the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which governs the rules of international agreements and stipulates that treaties cannot be suspended arbitrarily. The government has also pointed out that Pakistan’s agricultural sector, along with the livelihoods of millions of people, is at stake due to India’s actions. Therefore, Pakistan believes it has a strong legal case to contest the suspension and to ensure that its water rights under the treaty are respected.

Challenges to Pakistan’s Legal Options

While Pakistan has stated that it will exhaust all available legal avenues, experts suggest that its efforts may not yield the results it hopes for. The first option being considered by Pakistan is raising the issue through the World Bank, which has been involved in facilitating the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty since its inception. However, the World Bank has no enforcement authority over the treaty. Although the World Bank can appoint neutral experts or arbitrators to resolve disputes, it cannot compel either India or Pakistan to adhere to its decisions. In this regard, the World Bank’s role is largely advisory and procedural, rather than being a body that can manage or enforce the treaty’s terms.

The second option Pakistan is considering is approaching the International Court of Justice (ICJ). However, this route is also complicated. India has long maintained that the ICJ’s jurisdiction over the dispute is limited, particularly given that Pakistan is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations. India has made a declaration stating that the ICJ will not have jurisdiction in disputes with Commonwealth countries, which would exclude Pakistan from seeking legal recourse through the court.

Another avenue Pakistan is exploring is the Permanent Court of Arbitration, but this option also faces significant hurdles. The arbitration process can only work if both parties agree to submit their dispute to arbitration, and the tribunal’s findings are not binding. Therefore, even if Pakistan were to pursue this option, there is no guarantee that India would comply with any arbitration outcome, especially if the decision goes against its interests.

India’s Legal Defense for Suspending the Treaty

While Pakistan prepares to challenge India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, experts in India have pointed out that the country has strong legal grounds to defend its decision. According to Kushvinder Vohra, the former head of India’s Central Water Commission, India has “solid grounds” to justify its actions. Vohra emphasized that India has the right to take measures it deems necessary to protect its national security, especially in the context of terrorism and cross-border violence.

India’s stance is that the suspension of the treaty is not a violation of international law, but rather a response to Pakistan’s failure to address issues related to cross-border terrorism. India argues that the use of water resources, which are a strategic national asset, can be influenced by matters of national security, and therefore, Pakistan’s efforts to challenge India’s suspension are unlikely to succeed.

The Likely Outcome of Pakistan’s Challenge

Despite the legal avenues being explored by Pakistan, analysts suggest that Pakistan’s efforts to reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty may face significant challenges. The lack of a clear provision for unilateral suspension in the treaty itself, combined with the fact that the World Bank cannot enforce its decisions, means that Pakistan’s options are limited. The ICJ’s jurisdiction restrictions and India’s legal declarations also further complicate matters.

Moreover, the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan over the broader geopolitical context, including issues related to Kashmir and cross-border terrorism, mean that any legal challenge could take years to resolve, if at all. In the meantime, Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus Waters and the ongoing dispute over its water rights will continue to pose significant risks to its national security and economic stability.

The Future of the Indus Waters Treaty

As Pakistan explores its legal options in response to India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, the outcome remains uncertain. While there are various legal avenues available, these options face significant hurdles, and it remains to be seen whether they will result in a resolution favorable to Pakistan. What is clear, however, is that the suspension of the treaty has escalated tensions between the two nations, and the management of shared water resources in South Asia remains one of the most contentious issues in their relationship. For now, both countries face the challenge of balancing national security concerns with the need for peaceful cooperation over one of the region’s most precious resources: water.